Forecast hasn't changed much since Thursday, other than the NWS adding in finer details, with the NWS now calling for 3/4-1" of rain from about 6 am to 6 pm, but here's the thing about the type of sto ...
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Forecast hasn't changed much since Thursday, other than the NWS adding in finer details, with the NWS now calling for 3/4-1" of rain from about 6 am to 6 pm, but here's the thing about the type of storms we're likely to see. We're not going to see a steady moderate rain all day (like one gets with a classic coastal storm, for example) that puts down up to an inch of rain. Our situation is a deep, deep plume of tropical moisture being present (fuel) and an approaching "cold" front (the spark) focusing development of mesoscale convective showers and storms, wherein it will be quite possible to see a few 30-60 minute showers with heavy downpours that put down an inch of rain, while the rest of the time is just cloudy.
Also, note that there are models showing just 1/4-1/2" of rain and some showing 1-2" of rain during the day on Sunday, reflecting the uncertainty and complexity of the setup. There is nobody on the planet who can tell you exactly when and where such storms will hit, as we've seen multiple times the past few weeks. It's just that the odds for widespread heavy downpours and t-storms with lightning are significantly greater tomorrow than they've been for most days recently, where there have been some big storms, but those have been scattered in nature.
In this kind of setup, most of the day in NB could be dry with a couple of t-storms/downpours that we could play around (with shelter needed and a good warning system) or we could have frequent t-storms/downpours that would make completing play very difficult given the amount of time we'd need to be sheltering, as just about all of the storms we see tomorrow are very likely to contain frequent dangerous lightning. The NWS discussion below contains some good details on the setup and likely outcomes.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
